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Binary Options

A binary option (also called a digital option) pays a fixed amount if the underlying is above the strike at expiry, and zero otherwise. No slope, no scaling with distance from the strike. Just a yes-or-no payout.

This is the building block behind HIP-4 threshold markets and the mechanic underlying prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi.

Binary vs Vanilla Payoff

Settlement Price$108k
$70k$140k
Vanilla callBinary (HIP-4)0102030$70kK ($100k)$140kSettlement PricePayoff
Vanilla payoff
$8k
Binary payoff
$10k
Key difference
Vanilla grows with distance. Binary is flat at $10k.

The vanilla call grows with distance above the strike. The binary is flat: above the line you get 1, below you get 0.

Binary Call
Vanilla Call
Payoff if S > K
Fixed (1)
S - K (unlimited)
Payoff if S ≤ K
0
0
Max gain
1 - premium
Unlimited
Max loss
Premium paid
Premium paid
Delta near strike
Spikes sharply
Transitions smoothly
Hedging difficulty
Hard near expiry
Standard
💡

A vanilla call can be decomposed into a continuous strip of binary calls. Each binary represents one infinitesimal "slice" of the call's payoff at a specific strike. This is the mathematical foundation behind using HIP-4 threshold ladders to approximate vanilla option payoffs.

Pricing

A binary call's price is the market's implied probability that the underlying finishes above the strike. That's it. A binary trading at 0.70 means the market assigns a 70% chance to "yes, it settles ITM."

This is different from a vanilla call, whose price is the expected payoff and depends on how far past the strike the underlying is expected to go, not just whether it crosses. Binaries strip out the distance and price only the threshold-crossing probability.

Binary Call
Vanilla Call
What it measures
Probability of crossing strike
Expected payoff above strike
Price range
0 to 1
0 to ∞
Deep ITM
Approaches 1
Approaches F − K
ATM
~0.50
Roughly 0.40 · F · σ · √T
Deep OTM
Approaches 0
Approaches 0

Greeks

Binary option Greeks behave very differently from vanilla Greeks. The interactive chart below lets you compare them side by side.

IV (%)60%
20%120%
Days to Expiry30d
1d90d
Binary deltaVanilla delta8090100110120strikeUnderlying Price
Binary delta spikes sharply near the strike, especially close to expiry. This is what makes binary options hard to hedge.
Vanilla delta transitions smoothly from 0 to 1. Binary delta is a pulse centered on the strike.

Delta

Binary delta is the most important difference. Instead of the smooth 0-to-1 transition of vanilla delta, binary delta forms a sharp spike centered at the strike.

Moneyness
Binary Delta
Vanilla Delta
Deep OTM
~0
~0
ATM
Peaks sharply
~0.50
Deep ITM
~0
~1.0
⚠️
The hedging problem

Near expiry, binary delta at the strike can spike to extreme values. A small move in the underlying causes a large change in the option's value. This makes delta-hedging a binary option near the strike at expiry extremely difficult and expensive, which is one reason vanilla options are preferred for most trading purposes.

Gamma

Vanilla gamma is always positive (delta always increases toward the strike). Binary gamma flips sign: positive below the strike, negative above.

This means a binary option writer who is ATM faces gamma risk that changes direction as spot crosses the strike, a fundamentally different risk profile from vanilla gamma.

Theta

Vanilla theta is almost always negative (options lose value over time). Binary theta depends on moneyness:

Position
Binary Theta
Vanilla Theta
ITM
Positive (gains from decay)
Negative (loses from decay)
ATM
Near zero
Most negative
OTM
Negative (loses from decay)
Negative (loses from decay)

An ITM binary gains value as time passes, because the probability of staying ITM increases as uncertainty decreases. This is the opposite of vanilla behavior.

Vega

Binary vega flips sign at the strike:

  • OTM binary: positive vega. Higher vol increases the chance of crossing the strike.
  • ITM binary: negative vega. Higher vol increases the chance of falling back below the strike.

Vanilla vega is always positive. For a binary, more volatility is only good if you are on the wrong side of the strike.

Types of binaries

Not all binary options work the same way. The settlement trigger and observation window vary across products.

Type
Trigger
Example
European digital
Spot vs strike at a single expiry time
HIP-4 thresholds settle at expiry against Hyperliquid oracle
One-touch
Spot crosses strike at any point during the contract
Polymarket "Will BTC hit 90k in April?" settles on any intraday touch
No-touch
Spot never crosses strike during the contract
Pays out if BTC stays below 90k for the entire month
Double one-touch
Spot crosses either an upper or lower barrier
Pays if BTC moves outside a range in either direction

The distinction matters for pricing and hedging. European digitals (HIP-4) depend only on the terminal value, so they can be priced with Black-Scholes and fit cleanly into scenario-based portfolio margin. One-touch contracts depend on the entire price path, which requires different models and makes PM integration harder.

Prediction markets as binaries

Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are binary options markets. A contract that pays 1if"BTCisabove1 if "BTC is above 100k on Dec 31" is a binary call with strike $100k.

Prediction Market
Binary Option Equivalent
"Will BTC be above $100k?"
Binary call, K = $100k
Share price = $0.65
Option price = 0.65 (65% implied prob)
Pays $1 if YES
Pays 1 if S > K
Pays $0 if NO
Pays 0 if S ≤ K

Most prediction markets use one-touch settlement, not European. HIP-4 thresholds are European digitals: they settle at a specific expiry time against the Hyperliquid oracle, and because they are native HyperCore assets, they can sit in the same portfolio as perps and options for PM scoring.

Connection to vanilla options

Binaries and vanillas are mathematically connected: a vanilla call can be decomposed into a sum of binaries at successive strikes. This is the basis of static replication and the reason a ladder of HIP-4 thresholds can approximate a vanilla call's payoff.

The practical implication: if you're short a 100k vanilla call, being long a ladder of binaries at 100k, 110k, 120k, ... gives you a passive hedge that tracks the call's payoff shape. No rebalancing required, just hold to expiry.

See Static Replication for the full treatment including the Breeden-Litzenberger and Carr-Madan frameworks.


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